Bitcoin Is the New S&P 500

Bitcoin Is the New S&P 500: A Deeper Dive into the Benchmark Shift

By Macey Hollenshead, Founder – NextEdge Strategies

For decades, the S&P 500 was the gold standard for building wealth, the go-to benchmark every investor compared their performance against. But I’m here to challenge that way of thinking and encourage “The average person” to actually take time to understand this article and why that is no longer the case.

In a world drowning in fiat printing, tech explosions, and shifting global power plays, Bitcoin isn't just beating the market; it's becoming the new baseline. It's no longer some bet; it's the real measure of returns in a digital-first economy. If your portfolio can't keep up with Bitcoin, you're not just treading water; you're sinking in real value. Voices like Anthony Pompliano, have been saying this since early 2025, but let's cut through the noise and dig in: Bitcoin is becoming the core benchmark for an AI-powered machine economy, nations are stacking it like it's their lifeline against chaos, and the data screams irreversible momentum. This isn't hype—it's happening, and sitting on the sidelines waiting for the crowd to catch on is equal to getting left behind. We're out of the "maybe" phase, but relatively early in the adoption curve. Get your head around this tech; it's here to stay. Once you grasp its permanence as the future of money, viewing traditional portfolios as the "standard" becomes impossible.

Undeniable Outperformance: Updated Data as of October 2025

Bitcoin's dominance isn't hype—it's math. Drawing from mid-2025 analyses (adjusted for recent trends), here's the performance gap:

A $10,000 investment in Bitcoin from 2015 would exceed $38 million by mid-2025, versus ~$24,800 for the S&P 500—a 1,500x difference. This stems from Bitcoin's hardcoded scarcity (21 million cap) contrasting the S&P's vulnerability to infinite money printing and corporate dilution. During 2022-2023 inflation, Bitcoin rebounded 3x faster than the S&P, proving its inflation-hedge superiority. On-chain metrics reinforce this: Bitcoin's hash rate hit 700 EH/s in 2025, signaling unassailable network security and miner commitment.

Institutional and Sovereign Adoption: The Irreversible Tipping Point

2024's spot ETFs were the spark; 2025's inflows are the blaze.

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked the most successful ETF debut in financial market history, shattering records with over $36 billion in net inflows and $400 billion in cumulative trading volume within their first year—outpacing any prior ETF launch.

Cumulative ETF assets topped $100 billion by Q3 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT alone managing $50 billion.

Corporations like MicroStrategy (now holding 640,000+ BTC) and Tesla (11,500 BTC) treat it as "digital treasury," but the real novelty is sovereign adoption.

El Salvador's stack exceeds 6,300 BTC, while Bhutan has mined 12,000-13,000 BTC ($1.1-1.3 billion), integrating it into national reserves.

Chainalysis reports global adoption at 9.9% (559 million users), with the US leading globally, signaling Bitcoin's transition from asset to strategic reserve. This isn't speculation; it's survival in a multipolar world where BRICS challenge dollar dominance.

As Samson Mow notes, nations are entering the "suddenly" phase of adoption.

The Global Edge: Beyond U.S.-Centric Benchmarks—and Gold's Shadow

The S&P 500 is tethered to American policy; Fed rate hikes, tariffs, and domestic slowdowns. Bitcoin transcends that, thriving in a world where BRICS nations erode dollar hegemony. Its fixed supply makes it inflation-resistant "digital gold," outperforming during currency crises. In emerging markets, it's already a de facto benchmark for value storage, outpacing local indices amid hyperinflation.

Consider gold's own meteoric rise: Over the past year, its market cap has swelled by more than $9 trillion (from ~$18 trillion in October 2024 to ~$28 trillion today), fueled by a 50-60% price surge to over $4,100/oz amid safe-haven demand.

While JPMorgan hasn't bought Bitcoin directly for its balance sheet, it has facilitated client access. They are now allowing purchases through its platform, accepting spot Bitcoin ETFs as loan collateral, and partnering with Coinbase for crypto buys via Chase cards. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has gone further, evolving from caution to enthusiasm: In October 2025, he called Bitcoin "not a bad asset" and "digital gold" with a legitimate portfolio role as an inflation hedge, even suggesting it could challenge the U.S. dollar amid rising debt. These shifts from Wall Street titans underscore the inevitability: As gold's safe-haven allure draws trillions, Bitcoin is positioned to capture the next wave, blending scarcity with digital utility.

This validates the flight to hard assets, but as gold matures into a $28T behemoth with slower growth prospects, capital will rotate toward Bitcoin's higher-beta profile. We've already seen correlations: Gold rallies often precede Bitcoin inflows, and even a modest 1% reallocation from gold's trillions could add hundreds of billions to BTC's market cap, accelerating its benchmark status.

To illustrate this shift, here's a comparison of market cap growth over the last year (as of October 2025). While gold's absolute gains dwarf Bitcoin's so far, Bitcoin's percentage growth (70%) outpaces gold's (55%), and the potential for capital flow from gold's massive pool could supercharge Bitcoin's ascent.

The Novel Angle: Bitcoin as the Benchmark for the AI-Machine Economy

Here's where we break new ground: While comparisons to the S&P abound, few connect Bitcoin to the exploding AI economy. By 2025, AI agents are projected to drive a $335 billion machine economy. These agents need a neutral, programmable, borderless settlement layer to transact at machine speed. Enter Bitcoin. Layer-2 solutions like Lightning enable micro-payments for AI data exchanges, while Bitcoin's scarcity positions it as the "digital gold" reserve for AI-driven wealth. AI optimizes Bitcoin mining (e.g., via predictive algorithms), and Bitcoin secures AI models through decentralized verification. In this symbiosis, Bitcoin becomes the benchmark not just for returns, but for enabling the next industrial revolution. Traditional indices, tied to human-scale economies, can't compete with this exponential scaling—nor can gold, whose physical constraints limit its role in digital ecosystems.

The Urgency: Don't Wait for the Herd—We're Still Early

Bitcoin's 80%+ drawdowns are infamous, but they're diminishing with maturity. The real risk? Fiat erosion. The S&P's "gains" often mask dollar debasement, as gold's 2025 outperformance shows.

Bitcoin's adoption is at 3-10% globally, but accelerating exponentially. Don't wait until every pension fund and central bank is stacking sats to finally understand it. We're no longer in the beginning stages, but we are still early. Dive into the protocol. Bitcoin’s proof-of-work consensus, immutable ledger, and game-theoretic incentives make it antifragile. Once you see Bitcoin as the future of sound money in an AI-accelerated world, traditional benchmarks like the S&P feel obsolete.. like measuring progress with a sundial in the smartphone era.

About the Author

Macey Hollenshead is the founder of NextEdge Strategies, a consulting and research firm focused on digital assets and macro innovation at the intersection of AI and finance. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets carry risk; consult licensed experts before making decisions.

Sources

CoinMetrics | Yahoo Finance | S&P Dow Jones Indices | Chainalysis | Trading Economics | Morningstar | YCharts | CoinGecko | Coinfomania
© NextEdge Strategies Data as of October 2025